https://www.schiffgold.com/commentaries/get-ready-for-big-beautiful-inflation

Get Ready for Big, Beautiful Inflation
準備迎接 1个 "又大又美" 的通膨 !!!

As is the case with many new regulations, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) had the opposite effect as what was implied by its name. President Trump campaigned on reducing inflation and bringing down prices.
如同許多新法規的狀況，2022 年《降低通膨法案》(IRA)帶來的效果與其名稱暗示的恰恰相反。川普總統當初競選時承諾要降低通膨並壓低物價。

But with major changes to the IRA now sealed into law under the banner of Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill” (BBB), what Americans are left with is an expansion of the money supply. That’s good news for gold, but terrible for American savers.
但隨著《降低通膨法案》的重大修改在川普「大而美法案」（BBB）的旗幟下正式立法，美國人民面臨的是貨幣供給量的擴張。這對黃金來說是好消息，但對美國儲蓄者卻是噩耗。

The updated bill guts some of the green subsidies and introduces new tax incentives, infrastructure spending, and targeted manufacturing credits. It’s been sold to the American people as economic stimulus, but it’s actually just deficit spending dressed up as nationalism.
修訂後的法案削減了部分綠色補貼，並引入新的稅收優惠、基礎建設支出和針對性製造業補助。雖然被包裝成經濟刺激方案向美國民眾推銷，但實質上只是披著民族主義外衣的赤字支出。

Trump’s BBB increases federal spending without corresponding cuts. It’s paid for not by taxation or productive growth, but by borrowing. And that borrowing is increasingly being monetized, whether directly or indirectly. That means more Fed balance sheet expansion, and ultimately, more dollars in circulation.
川普的 BBB 法案在未相應削減支出的情況下增加聯邦開支。這些資金並非來自稅收或生產性增長，而是借貸。而這些借貸正日益被貨幣化——無論是直接或間接。這意味著聯準會資產負債表將進一步擴張，最終導致更多美元在市場流通。

The BBB means more deficit spending, which means more inflation. When the government spends money it doesn’t have, and the Fed accommodates it with rate suppression or asset purchases. The end result of Fed policy, on a long enough timeline, is always larger money supply. A larger money supply is the textbook definition of inflation, and higher prices for consumers are the result.
BBB 意味著更多的赤字支出，這將導致更嚴重的通貨膨脹。當政府花費它沒有的錢，而聯準會透過壓低利率或購買資產來配合時，從長期來看，聯準會政策的最終結果總是貨幣供給量增加。貨幣供給量增加正是教科書上對通貨膨脹的定義，而消費者面臨的結果就是物價上漲。

More borrowing, through Treasury issuance, expands the money supply. When the Federal Reserve purchases these securities or banks lend against them, more dollars enter circulation. An influx of dollars chasing the same or fewer goods leads to higher prices. 
透過發行國債進行更多借貸，會擴大貨幣供給量。當聯邦儲備系統購買這些證券，或是銀行以此為擔保進行放貸時，就會有更多美元進入流通。大量美元追逐相同或更少的商品，將導致價格上漲。

The 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act added nearly two trillion to the debt over a decade, and the BBB is even broader. This will amplify the effect, driving inflation higher.
2017 年的《減稅與就業法案》在十年內增加了近兩兆美元的債務，而 BBB 的規模甚至更大。這將放大通膨效應，推動物價進一步攀升。

Despite the rhetoric of “bringing manufacturing back” or “rebuilding America,” this bill isn’t about genuine economic growth. It’s about short-term political gain funded by long-term monetary erosion. Average Americans and savers are the ones who will pay the price.
儘管打著「讓製造業回流」或「重建美國」的口號，但這項法案與真正的經濟成長無關。它是以長期貨幣貶值為代價，換取短期政治利益。最終買單的將是普通美國民眾和儲蓄者。

Price pressures are picking up again. Commodity markets are signaling real inflation that’s not yet reflected in the CPI. Gold, silver, copper, steel, palladium, lead and other metals spiked. This tells the story that the government and Fed are unwilling to tell. 
物價壓力再度攀升。大宗商品市場正顯示出尚未反映在消費者物價指數(CPI)中的真實通膨。黃金、白銀、銅、鋼材、鈀、鉛和其他金屬價格飆升，這揭示了政府與聯準會不願面對的真相。

While gold bullion dumped today, silver rapidly recovered, and copper went full hockey stick in the face of new Trump tariffs. Higher commodity prices happen as a result of real inflation, which means higher CPI numbers are on the way.
雖然金條今日遭拋售，白銀卻快速反彈，銅價更在川普新關稅政策下呈現曲棍球桿式暴漲。大宗商品價格上漲是實質通膨的結果，預示更高的 CPI 數據即將來襲。

Silver 1-Day Chart  白銀一日走勢圖

Any significant rise in CPI will cause an outcry, but the Fed can’t raise rates aggressively without detonating the budget or tanking markets. Politics and status quo monetary policy incentivizes them to lower rates as soon as possible, not keep them higher. In a free market, rates would be drastically higher. But right now, there’s no shortage of political pressure for rate cuts that will only make inflation even worse. 
任何顯著的 CPI 上漲都會引發強烈抗議，但聯準會若激進升息將導致預算爆炸或市場崩盤。政治現狀與現行貨幣政策促使他們盡快降息，而非維持高利率。在自由市場中，利率本應大幅提高。但當前政治壓力不斷要求降息，這只會讓通膨更加惡化。

This is the inflationary doom loop. High government spending pushes prices up, creating economic pain and political pressure. That leads to monetary easing, which then makes the same problem even worse
這就是通膨的死亡循環：政府高額支出推升物價，造成經濟痛苦與政治壓力，進而導致貨幣寬鬆政策，使相同問題更加嚴重。

Gold tells the true story that the Fed is again backed into a corner. Real interest rates remain negative when you account for future inflation. That makes gold not only an inflation hedge, but a rational alternative to fiat itself. As Trump, Biden, and many before them have shown, whoever sits in the White House, the printing press is a permanent feature of government.
黃金揭示了聯準會再次被逼入牆角的真相。若考量未來通膨，實質利率仍為負值。這使得黃金不僅是抗通膨工具，更是法幣本身的理性替代品。正如川普、拜登與歷任總統所示，無論誰入主白宮，印鈔機永遠是政府的標準配備。

Wall Street can profit from whatever levers the Fed pulls, and meanwhile, Washington gets the never-ending free money they need to fund endless wars, hollow promises, and bloat. The victims are ordinary Americans as every new dollar created erodes the value of what little people have saved. Savings accounts and salary wages earn less than inflation. And retirement dreams are quietly destroyed by the invisible tax of debasement. 
華爾街可以從聯準會的任何操作中獲利，與此同時，華盛頓也獲得了源源不絕的免費資金，用來資助無止盡的戰爭、空洞的承諾和臃腫的開支。受害者是普通美國民眾，因為每一張新印的鈔票都在侵蝕人們微薄積蓄的價值。儲蓄帳戶和薪資收入的增長速度趕不上通膨。退休夢想正被這種無形的貨幣貶值稅悄悄摧毀。

If you price major stock indices in terms of gold instead of dollars, they’ve been basically flat for decades. Trump may claim to support the working class, but the BBB quietly drains their purchasing power while handing out subsidies and pork to corporate allies and political donors. It’s inflationary populism. And like all populism funded by money printing, it ends in economic decline.
如果你用黃金而非美元來衡量主要股票指數的表現，會發現它們幾十年來幾乎沒有實質成長。川普或許聲稱支持勞工階級，但 BBB 法案卻在暗中侵蝕他們的購買力，同時將補貼和利益輸送給企業盟友與政治金主。這就是通膨型民粹主義。而就像所有靠印鈔票支撐的民粹主義一樣，最終將導致經濟衰退。

Both the GOP and Democrats claim their spending is “investment” and justify it as “stimulus.” But it ends in stagflation. Sluggish growth, rising prices, declining real wages, and a central bank with no way out of its own mess.
共和黨與民主黨都聲稱他們的支出是「投資」，並以「刺激經濟」為由合理化。但最終結果卻是停滯性通膨：經濟成長遲緩、物價上漲、實質薪資下降，還有個央行深陷自己造成的爛攤子無法脫身。

The CPI will likely rise again in the coming quarters while the Fed, under pressure to support growth and help refinance the government’s exploding debt, will respond by cutting rates. That will pour gasoline on the inflationary fire. In the meantime, gold and other real assets will continue their ascent. The dollar will weaken, not necessarily on the DXY index, but in terms of its domestic purchasing power.
未來幾季消費者物價指數很可能再度攀升，而聯準會在支持經濟成長與協助政府償還暴增債務的壓力下，將以降息作為因應。此舉無異於對通膨烈火澆上汽油。與此同時，黃金及其他實質資產將持續上漲。美元將會走弱——未必反映在美元指數上，而是就其國內購買力而言。

Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” continues the bipartisan trend of mortgaging our future to prop up the present. And the ultimate cost will be paid not by the political elite—but by savers, retirees, and anyone trying to build wealth honestly. But in a simultaneous pseudo-populist inflationary grift, the Invest America Act will start gifting $1,000 worth of S&P 500 stock to newborns in 2026. Not only is this “gift” funded by other people’s money, but will artificially juice the stock market, stealing from Americans to make it look like the economy is healthier than it really is. Funding corporate stock purchases with taxpayer money is about as “socialist” as it gets.
川普的「大美麗法案」延續了兩黨抵押我們未來以支撐當下的趨勢。而最終代價並非由政治精英承擔——而是由儲蓄者、退休人士，以及任何試圖誠實累積財富的人支付。但在同步實施的偽民粹主義通膨騙局中，《投資美國法案》將從 2026 年開始贈送每位新生兒價值 1,000 美元的標普 500 股票。這份「禮物」不僅挪用他人資金來支付，還將人為拉抬股市，剝削美國民眾以營造經濟比實際更健康的假象。用納稅人的錢為企業股票買單，簡直是「社會主義」的極致表現。

The irony is that Trump criticized Biden’s policies and is now embracing inflationary strategy under a new name, proving that robbing Peter to pay Paul isn’t a partisan issue. It’s a systemic one, and gold is the only real exit.
諷刺的是，川普曾批評拜登政策，如今卻換個名目擁抱通膨策略，證明拆東牆補西牆並非黨派問題。這是體制性問題，而黃金才是真正的避風港。